Re: OT Sold It!!!!!!!!!!!!

"TBone" <NoWay@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message 
news:48387522$0$31719$4c368faf@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> "Max Dodge" <max340@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message 
> news:qWJZj.69$ZM.40@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>>> Sadly, much of the problem is not comming from speculation.
>>
>> Proof?
>
>
> Speculators do not normally start trends, they follow them and there 
> simply not enough of them to cause the price to rise like this.

Well, thats where you start to be wrong. There have always been enough 
speculators, since ANYONE with money can be a speculator, especially now 
that the PC can get you on the world markets. So we've got the numbers. 
Next, with the dollar down the way it is, a lot of normally conservative 
overseas investment funds have extra cash. Commodities like oil are a
great 
way to hedge against the falling dollar. Hell, if you doubt me, take a
look 
at any AP news story about oil prices. There is ALWAYS a short paragraph 
explaining this.  Thus, we also have the cash.

Numbers of investors with extra cash to invest, and they want to protect 
themselves against the falling dollar. Oil is the way to do it.


> The real problem is in demand.

The demand currently is not any more than it was this time last year, 
according to many sources, including this one:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t17.xls

If you look, U.S. demand falls slightly over the past year. Also, we're 
using about 25% of the oil, compared to some that say we use 33%. Another 
interesting note, the Europeans use 75% as much as we do, yet have roughly

50% of the population and area.

This site: http://omrpublic.iea.org/

Suggests that:
"Global oil product demand has been lowered for both 2007 and 2008, to
85.8 
mb/d and 86.8 mb/d respectively. Slower economic growth, high prices and 
2006 baseline adjustments suggest that OECD oil demand will contract for
the 
third successive year in 2008. Non-OECD demand growth in 2008, led by
China 
and the Middle East, remains strong at 3.7% or 1.4 mb/d, leaving growth
for 
the world as a whole at 1.2% (+1.0 mb/d)."

Demand appears to be dropping, even with China using more. True this is
due 
to prices, but the prices are driving demand down, rather than demand 
driving prices up.


> Do to our idiotic globalization, we have awakened a few sleeping giants 
> such as India and China.  Now many of the people in these countries can 
> afford and want things such as cars and they require fuel.

Our "idiotic globalization" was/is driven by two things: Capitalism, and 
humanitarianism. We want cheaper goods, but we don't want the them made in

sweatshops.

> Then when you add in the fact that these two countries as well as a few 
> others subsidize the cost of fuel, the soaring cost of oil has no effect

> on the citizens of these countries and the demand continues.

Thats true. But, as noted above, worldwide demand is on a downward trend.


> If it were primarily caused by pure speculation, the last rise in oil 
> supplies should have sent the price of oil down but instead, it not only

> held, it went up.

Actually, your statement above should read:

Since it was primarily caused by pure speculation, the last rise in oil 
supplies should have sent the price of oil down but instead, it not only 
held, it went up.

What you seem to have missed is, you note that supplies have gone up. You 
also note that the normal result is prices will go down. You further note 
they did not. You FAILED to note that the reason is exactly what you 
discarded: speculation.

> Now the word on the street is that many of these countries will end
their 
> subsidies of fuel prices very soon as well as China after the Olympics 
> which will hopefully return the price of oil to a more managable level.

This may have an effect, but the primary reason why we have high prices is

because of the low value of the dollar. This can be directly attributed to

the Fed flooding the market with money to keep Wall Street Banks solvent. 
The problem is this: If the Fed had not flooded the market, then more
banks 
would have failed, dumping more people out of work, causing a huge ripple 
effect on the world economy. Instead, we average Joes get to suffer
through 
the results of greedy bankers that made stupid decisions and used 
questionable lending (120% equity loans on a home??) practices.

> That is until the moronic population of the US gets another bug up there

> ass and begins buying oversized gas guzzeling beasts again and since we 
> have already done this very thing twice before, I see no reason why it 
> will not happen again.

Sure, it'll happen again and again. No big deal, thats economics 101.

But the real question here is this: Where is your proof that speculation
has 
nothing to do with the price of oil? I've shown proof of world demand
going 
down. I've also shown proof that the dollar is weak, and told you that you

can find proof of the connection in any AP news story on oil.

Now, again, Where is your proof that its a simple demand problem?

-- 
Max

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, he is not entitled to his own 
facts."  Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York