Re: OT - So Michael...

Joe wrote:
> Michael Johnson <cds@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in 
> news:1dGdncky_LTtSTTanZ2dnUVZ_rSrnZ2d@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> 
>> Joe wrote:
>>> <big snip>
>>>
>>> And we've come full circle back to how to change the system so that 
> it 
>>> actually works...
>> Looking at the past it seems to me that something catastrophic has to 
>> occur to the general population before serious action is demanded by 
> the 
>> public.  You can see it happening with Obama.  His sup****ters really 
>> want to believe the words coming out of his mouth but his is just a 
>> typical tax and spend politician.  They think that since his skin is 
>> black he will actually change things.  He won't change anything.  All 
>> this stuff he claims he will deliver would bankrupt us in short order 
> so 
>> he isn't the answer.
> 
> We're already bankrupt.  :)  BTW, thanks for trimming the thread.

No problem on the trimming.  My scroll down key was getting ready to 
suffer a heart attack.

>> Like I said to Dwight, people will only demand real change when they 
> are 
>> punched square in the face by hard****p.  I think this day is coming 
> soon 
>> and will be brought about by the collapse of the social security 
> system 
>> resulting from the retirement of the baby boomers.  Then it will take 
> a 
>> leader that can clearly, effectively and truthfully explain the 
> problems 
>> and their solutions and promote them to act.  I also think this person 
>> will have to be outside the two party system.
> 
> You've got a good point about social security.  I'm on the tail end, so 
> I'll probably get what I'm expecting (or close to it).  But when younger

> people realize that they're paying into a system that won't return 
> anything to them, maybe they'll actually force some change.

I think it will hit many of the baby boomers.  Just wait until the day 
comes when they need certain medical treatments and the government won't 
approve the it.  There is a gender war coming in this country.  It will 
pit the working people against the retirees because the working people's 
taxes are going to go through the roof to pay for the entitlements of 
the boomers if they aren't trimmed substantially.

> At any rate, I think the doomsday you speak of is right around the 
> corner, at least fiscally.  Just a few observations:
> * The housing market is in the crapper

The housing market will rebound one more time, IMO.  Then the flood of 
houses on the market from the boomers will be the real killer of the 
housing market for quite some time.  Many won't be able to afford their 
mortgages on social security checks and they don't have enough 
retirement savings to make up the difference.  They will be going to 
senior apartments for the cheap rent.  The result is a continual flood 
of housing being dumped on the market for years and years.  The only 
thing that can possibly keep this from happening is to allow much more 
legal immigration to bolster up the work force numbers.

> * The service sector is way down

This will be OK, IMO.  The boomers will need a lot of services and many 
will take the "Walmart greeter" type jobs to make ends meet.

> * Inflation is edging higher

I know you don't agree but so far inflation has been kept at bay 
overall.  The government will do anything to keep inflation low and has 
done that over the past several decades.

> * Return on investments is in the crapper due to the fed's rate cuts

This is a real problem area.  If we lose foreign investment capital then 
it will be real ugly for businesses.

> * Banks and lenders are collapsing all over the place

This will all shake out over time.  We have got through past banking 
problems and this is just the latest one.  It is the possible lack of 
foreign capital that could be the big problem for banks, IMO.

> * We're about to enter a big, fat recession

I don't know if I would say that just yet or how bad it will be.  The 
rate cuts will help but they take 6-12 months to show results.  I have 
been saying for the past 1.5 years that the Fed has been extremely 
negligent in dealing with the housing market problems.  The economy 
can't continue to be healthy with such a large component tanking 
severely.  I'm in the land development business and can tell you the 
housing market is in VERY bad condition.  Think of all the services and 
products associated with building and furni****ng a new house.  It 
ripples through all kinds of industries and service businesses.  It is 
now dragging the rest of the economy down.  The feds should have started 
cutting the prime 18 months ago.

> Better buckle your seat belt.

Let me tell you something.  With the housing market in horrible shape I 
am already fully **** hammered.  I can't get any lower and I might be 
getting a lot of company in the economic dungeon before long.  Shall I 
save anyone a seat?