Joe wrote:
> Michael Johnson <cds@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in
> news:tOSdnXLHwvxf4jfanZ2dnUVZ_jydnZ2d@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
>> dwight wrote:
>>> "Michael Johnson" <cds@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
>>> news:5eCdnWbds-Hm0jfanZ2dnUVZ_hisnZ2d@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>>>> Joe wrote:
>>>>> Michael Johnson <cds@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in
>>>>> news:1dGdncky_LTtSTTanZ2dnUVZ_rSrnZ2d@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>>>>>
>>>>>> Joe wrote:
>>>>>>> <big snip>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> And we've come full circle back to how to change the system so
>>>>>>> that
>>>>> it
>>>>>>> actually works...
>>>>>> Looking at the past it seems to me that something catastrophic has
>>>>>> to occur to the general population before serious action is
>>>>>> demanded by
>>>>> the
>>>>>> public. You can see it happening with Obama. His sup****ters
>>>>>> really want to believe the words coming out of his mouth but his
>>>>>> is just a typical tax and spend politician. They think that since
>>>>>> his skin is black he will actually change things. He won't change
>>>>>> anything. All this stuff he claims he will deliver would bankrupt
>>>>>> us in short order
>>>>> so
>>>>>> he isn't the answer.
>>>>> We're already bankrupt. :) BTW, thanks for trimming the thread.
>>>> No problem on the trimming. My scroll down key was getting ready to
>>>> suffer a heart attack.
>>>>
>>>>>> Like I said to Dwight, people will only demand real change when
>>>>>> they
>>>>> are
>>>>>> punched square in the face by hard****p. I think this day is
>>>>>> coming
>>>>> soon
>>>>>> and will be brought about by the collapse of the social security
>>>>> system
>>>>>> resulting from the retirement of the baby boomers. Then it will
>>>>>> take
>>>>> a
>>>>>> leader that can clearly, effectively and truthfully explain the
>>>>> problems
>>>>>> and their solutions and promote them to act. I also think this
>>>>>> person will have to be outside the two party system.
>>>>> You've got a good point about social security. I'm on the tail
>>>>> end, so I'll probably get what I'm expecting (or close to it). But
>>>>> when younger people realize that they're paying into a system that
>>>>> won't return anything to them, maybe they'll actually force some
>>>>> change.
>>>> I think it will hit many of the baby boomers. Just wait until the
>>>> day comes when they need certain medical treatments and the
>>>> government won't approve the it. There is a gender war coming in
>>>> this country. It will pit the working people against the retirees
>>>> because the working people's taxes are going to go through the roof
>>>> to pay for the entitlements of the boomers if they aren't trimmed
>>>> substantially.
>>>>
>>>>> At any rate, I think the doomsday you speak of is right around the
>>>>> corner, at least fiscally. Just a few observations:
>>>>> * The housing market is in the crapper
>>>> The housing market will rebound one more time, IMO. Then the flood
>>>> of houses on the market from the boomers will be the real killer of
>>>> the housing market for quite some time. Many won't be able to
>>>> afford their mortgages on social security checks and they don't have
>>>> enough retirement savings to make up the difference. They will be
>>>> going to senior apartments for the cheap rent. The result is a
>>>> continual flood of housing being dumped on the market for years and
>>>> years. The only thing that can possibly keep this from happening is
>>>> to allow much more legal immigration to bolster up the work force
>>>> numbers.
>
> The housing market will always "rebound", but what it rebounds to is the
> question. Right now, builders are going out of business (increasing the
> unemployment figures) and the domino effect is in full force. With the
> increasing number of "pre-owned" homes on the market, there's no
> immediate relief in sight for homebuilders.
This downturn isn't as bad as it was in the early 1990s. Builders come
and go, merge together etc. so don't make that an indicator. The ones
that didn't overpay for land will be fine. My personal experience with
builders has shown them to be lying s***bags. I don't have any sympathy
for them in the least.
>>>>> * The service sector is way down
>>>> This will be OK, IMO. The boomers will need a lot of services and
>>>> many will take the "Walmart greeter" type jobs to make ends meet.
>
> There won't be any money left to hire in the service sector. Walmart
> greeters will be among the first to go.
There is always fast food. That will never go away in this country. ;)
>>>>> * Inflation is edging higher
>>>> I know you don't agree but so far inflation has been kept at bay
>>>> overall. The government will do anything to keep inflation low and
>>>> has done that over the past several decades.
>
> Perhaps I'm using the wrong term, but I'm talking about the ever-
> increasing cost of living that's completely out of step with earnings.
> There's no end in sight for this.
The rise in gasoline has been the big hit for most people but keep in
mind how long fuel prices remained stagnant. The price adjustments now
are not that far out of line if priced had raised consistently over the
years. If we start using our food to produce fuel our cars then that
could really increase food costs. This is why I don't think biofuels
are a good idea.
>>>>> * Return on investments is in the crapper due to the fed's rate
>>>>> cuts
>>>> This is a real problem area. If we lose foreign investment capital
>>>> then it will be real ugly for businesses.
>
> Thanks to the current administration (had to get that jab in there),
> fiscal America is sinking like a stone.
You do know that all this sub-prime mess got rolling under Clinton? ;)
>>>>> * Banks and lenders are collapsing all over the place
>>>> This will all shake out over time. We have got through past banking
>>>> problems and this is just the latest one. It is the possible lack
>>>> of foreign capital that could be the big problem for banks, IMO.
>
> I think it's fairly serious. Witness the world-wide effect the subprime
> fiasco had.
It is fairly serious but not devastating.
>>>>> * We're about to enter a big, fat recession
>>>> I don't know if I would say that just yet or how bad it will be.
>
> Talk to everyday working people and see what the consensus is.
Those numbers change with the wind. Next week consumer confidence could
be off the charts.
>>>> The rate cuts will help but they take 6-12 months to show results.
>>>> I have been saying for the past 1.5 years that the Fed has been
>>>> extremely negligent in dealing with the housing market problems.
>
> So what else is new? ;)
>
>>>> The economy can't continue to be healthy with such a large component
>>>> tanking severely.
>
> Exactly. This is one of the main reasons why we'll be in a recession
> soon IMO.
>
>> I'm in the land development business and can tell
>>>> you the housing market is in VERY bad condition. Think of all the
>>>> services and products associated with building and furni****ng a new
>>>> house. It ripples through all kinds of industries and service
>>>> businesses. It is now dragging the rest of the economy down. The
>>>> feds should have started cutting the prime 18 months ago.
>
> You're making my point for me. Again, this is one of the big reasons
> why we are headed into a recession.
>
>>>>> Better buckle your seat belt.
>>>> Let me tell you something. With the housing market in horrible
>>>> shape I am already fully **** hammered. I can't get any lower and I
>>>> might be getting a lot of company in the economic dungeon before
>>>> long.
>
> I hear you big time. But don't kid yourself - it can get worse.
Not in my camp. We have gone into hibernation and don't plan to wake up
until the spring of 2009. It is funny to see these local governments
here that trash developers during good times and now are having big
budget shortfalls because they aren't getting developer's money due to
the depression of the housing market. I guess we aren't so bad after all.
>> Shall I save anyone a seat?
>
> Yup. Better save a bunch of 'em. ;)
>
>>> Oh, you guys worry too much.
>
> Maybe so. Let's fire up a doob and all sing 'Kumbaya'. While I'm
> waiting, let me go take care of that baboon who left his rap music
> blaring at the pumps while he goes in to buy those stupid cherry cigars.
> A few rounds into his dash oughta take care of it...
>
>>> We're going to add 20,000,000 Mexicans to the tax rolls, so us
>>> tail-end boomers don't need to worry. It's the people in their 30s,
>>> possibly 40s, that can kiss Social Security goodbye.
>
> Mierda!
>
>> Wait until you are 85 years old and have a tumor the size of a small
>> child growing on you somewhere. Then the government doctor says
>> you're too old for an operation and chemotherapy or they just put you
>> on the "list". The trouble is the "list" is for getting you a casket.
>
> I'll never reach 85.
If you have good private health insurance they will make sure you reach
95 years old. You, my friend, are a cash cow to the medical community.
>> My mother-in-law was a life long Democrat. Voted for FDR and stuck by
>> Bill Clinton even though she knew he had *** with that woman.
>
> LOL!
>
>> She was
>> a WAC in the Army during WWII and believed that the government was
>> going to take care of her in her older years. Then she became too
>> stricken with Alzheimer's disease to stay on her own or to live with
>> family without some supervision through the day. Well, she was
>> supposed to get admittance to a VA assisted living facility and they
>> denied her a place there. When she heard this she looked at my wife,
>> her daughter, and said "They lied to me didn't they?" She finally
>> knew the truth that the government wasn't going to deliver more than
>> the bare minimum and nothing else. She ended up with terminal cancer
>> before she had to leave the apartment and spent her last months in a
>> nursing home.
>
> That's a damn shame. But this crap is still going on today. Look at
> how poorly Iraq vets are being treated. Remember Walter Reed from last
> year?
>
>> We are all going to come to the same realization one day. The smart
>> ones will have prepared for it but the majority of baby boomers will
>> not have. Then when they need assistance beyond a social security
>> check the government will take every penny and possession they have
>> until NOTHING is left. They did this very thing with my Mother.
>
> And this is what needs to be fixed. None of these yahoos running for
> president will deal with it.
>
>> Dwight, do you really think 20,000,000 Mexicans earning minimum wage
>> are going to make a dent in the tab the boomers are going to rack up?
>> We need 20,000,000 phDs earning $250k per year just pay for the
>> Geritol supply.
>
> Please shoot me now - I'll feel better. ;)
Maybe we can all form a line and get the most use out of one bullet?
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